Too many words about Baseball Highlights 2045
This article covers my (evolving) thoughts about Baseball Highlights 2045 strategy, tactics and planning. I’m not the best person to write this, but I’m not actually actually terrible at the game either. This does not discuss the expansion packs. I don’t consider this done, this is more of a draft to generate discussion, but I’m tired.
General Tips for new players
- Put someone on deck barring a good reason not to
- Be wary about releasing your last pinch hitter early. (I prefer to call them pinch hittable, since they go out of the game, but nobody asked me)
- Pay attention to your opponent’s drafts (and releases sent down to the minors). Obviously this matters more in a 2p game.
- Drafting two way players (with hits and defensive actions) may not be better, but it will make your decisions easier.
- The value of revenue decreases over time. Skills that cancel all hits by a specific type of player increases over time (as players get better).
- Strongly consider drafting two players instead of one (if that’s an option).
- Don’t underestimate the difference being a PH makes.
The Starting Teams
All four starting teams have 10 rookies and 5 veterans, the Rookie lineup is identical for each team. Unless otherwise noted, a player’s speed is average and they aren’t pinch hittable. Since this is baseball, I’ve given them nicknames for reference.
Format is Type (Cyborg, Natural, Robot), $Income, Hits threatened (S/D/T/HR), Skills, PH or Speed
- “Pickoff Guy” — Cy, $2, none, Pickoff, PH.
- “Intentional Walk” — Cy, $1, none, Walk, PH.
- “Hitting Fielder” — Na, $0, S, Glove.
- “Whiffing Fielder” — Na, $1, none, Glove, PH
- “Crowd Pleaser” — Na, $2, S (2 Copies)
- “Regularbot” — Ro, $1, S + S, Slow (2 copies)
- “Slowbot” — Ro, $1, D
- “Doublebot” — Ro, $2, D, Slow
Each team’s five veterans differ, but there are consistencies. All teams have $6 on veterans, 2 PH and 3 immediate skills. Most teams have 2 Na + 2 Ro + 1 Cy (making the basic full team 6 Na + 6 Ro + 3 Cy). Most teams have “average” speed (meaning for each slow they have a fast player) and four or five hits for 8-11 bases.
So, the average starting team looks like:
15 players, 6 Na/6Ro/3Cy, $19, 14 hits for 19-22 bases, 5 Pinch hitters, and 7 skills, and is roughly average in speed, but with 3 slower players.
Judging card attributes
In theory card attributes are easy to judge. More hits are better, having an immediate skill is better than not, faster trumps slower, more revenue is better than less. Being pinch hittable is better than not. However, it’s difficult to judge tradeoffs. Would you rather go from average to slow and gain PH? Is it better to hit another single (or a double instead of a single) as compared to a point of revenue? Those are the questions. So, skipping the obvious (more is better), let’s examine the card attributes.
Race and the Arms Race — Robots and Cyborgs and Naturals, oh my. Race is a neutral attribute, however, there are three pitching skills that will cancel all threatened hits of a batter. Robots have trouble with curveballs. Naturals cant hit fastballs, and Cyborgs can’t handle spitballs (I wish they’d picked sliders, as ‘cyborg slider’ sounds good, but slider is an expansion skill). In theory this is all rock/paper/scissors, but curveball is much better than the other two. Most starting Naturals have roughly a single. Some of the veterans hit for extra bases, but that’s cancelled by a few rookies that don’t hit at all. Early in the game a spitballer is practically worthless. Each team has only three cyborgs, and two of them don’t get hits at all. But each team starts with 6 (or 7) Robots, and all of them hit doubles or better (or multiple base hits). Those are hits worth cancelling.
How do I rate the other pitching/defensive skills:
- Walk is reasonable. It neutralizes speed and can save a run or two in the right situation,. Sometimes it will save a run against a single, since average/fast runner can’t stretch from second. Against single hits it is inferior to glove and against multiple hits its inferior to the curve/fast/spit ball, but it always applies.
- The Knuckleballer reduces all hits by one base (and cancels singles). This totally nerfs singles, and each team has two who start with S+S. But you’d much rather have a walk against home run/X.
- Glove cancels a single hit, but against anyone. Early on, this trumps the pitchers, but you’ll draft people who have multiple hits, so it will become weaker later on.
- Pickoff is substitute glove. This can be useful against leadoff batters (who always get on base if played first) and against a runner in scoring position (RISP) instead of cancelling a mere single. An average/fast baserunner on second is usually a run. They make it on a single. Also leaving any base runner (even slow) in scoring position is asking to have a clutch played against you. So yes, it’s better to cancel the hit (because it may have scored other runners) but if you can’t pickoff is a fine substitute.
- Double Play is a conditionally superior pickoff. You can get two baserunners, but not fast ones. But conditionally superior also means conditionally inferior (said the man who just lost game seven of the word series when his double play caught exactly zero runners).
All things being equal, my feeling is
Curve > Glove > Fast > Double Play > Pickoff > Knuckle > Walk > Spit (early)
Curve > Fast > Glove > Walk > Spit > Knuckle > Pickoff > Double Play (later)
I’m not sold on this. This is open for debate. And as the Hideous Hog noted: ceteris is never parabus. If everyone drafts naturals early, fastball is king that game. Pay attention.
Clutch is my favorite offensive skill. Yes, you need to trigger it. You get an extra single, you score at least one run. About the only deck it’s pointless in as an all HR deck, and those aren’t easy to build (and are still vulnerable to knuckleballers and walks). A conditional unblockable hit. Having a clutch or two in your deck will also cause the opposing manager distress. A manager may save the final glove but then you score before it matters…
Quick Eye works well, especially on a robot heavy team. No opposing cyborgs means no opposing curveballs. You are willing to forgo a single or double if every robot gets their hits. If they do have cyborgs, you get some value from your robots, even if cancelled. Quick Eye only looses to clutch because some teams may drop to 1-2 cyborgs.
Stolen Base is ok. It may grab a run (if you are on third) that you couldn’t get, but often those base runners would likely score. Stealing an average runner from 1st to 2nd is good, as is stealing a runner home. Everything else is ok.
Leadoff is easily the weakest skill. One single can’t be stopped, sure, but only in the first play. Worse, if you are the home team forgoes a defensive play (thanks to Mark Delano for pointing that out). Useless in extra innings if drawn randomly. Useless if you top deck it for a pinch hitter except in the first inning. Every other skill may be worthwhile if drawn in extra innings or as a pinch hitter. For all this you make a single not gloveable (but pickoff-able). Even after as few games as I’ve played I think leadoff should work whenever bases are empty (or in extra innings, empty or not). Having a PH instead basically means “Play a random card instead” which isn’t great for planning. Avoid leadoff. (I’ve got a variant proposal). I will note that Leadoff (as home team) can be followed up by Double Play as a possibility.
Unlike defensive skills I don’t think this is particularly open for debate.
Clutch > Quick Eye > > Stolen Base > Leadoff
Revenue depends on the format you are playing, but it declines as the game goes on. A high revenue free agent (like Dave Trout) may be a great first acquisition but a mediocre final one. The revenue of the player (hopefully rookie) you send down to the minors also matters, but a bit less, since they only come back after a shuffle.
Hits are the offensive side of the game. More hits are better because they stop gloves. You can get shut down by the appropriate pitcher, but get through. Extra hits mean extra runs (assuming you can bring them home). Four (average) singles score two runs and are harder to cancel than a single HR (barring a Knuckle ball). Of course, you want a density of runs, since you only get six cards. But hits differ from other aspects of the game in that they really don’t have diminishing returns.
Marginal Utility and Deckbuilding
If you have one single, you don’t score. Two singles, you don’t score. Three singles scores (average runners), and every single after that scores. A double play robs two runs. A glove robs one. Assuming average defense, you get two hits cancelled and a pickoff. 6 average singles yields one run and strands two. If you can convert the last single to a HR you get four runs, unless it gets cancelled. Every thing past that gets converted, although some pitchers cancel multiple hits. At the margin, every increased hit is a run.
Fall to 5 singles, and average defense shuts you out. There’s not much difference between 5 hits and 3 hits. At that margin, you aren’t going to score against average defense. You have to play to go into extra innings (and which point you’ll still likely be in a bad position, due to baserunners). You may very well score against a low defense’ if your opponent isn’t drawing (or playing) defense he’s pounding offense. But if you have so few hits you should have defense…
Marginal utility applies to defense and most skills but those suffer diminishing returns. 5 Quick eyes doesn’t help, you aren’t likely to hit more than 2-3 cyborgs a game. Six gloves are OK, but you’ll let a steady stream of hits from free agents who have 2-3. Better to have 4 gloves and one curveballer or fastballer to cancel a few extra hits by a single batter. All stolen bases doesn’t help if you don’t have enough hits to get on base.
This isn’t to say that you can’t angle your team. Just that many skills suffer diminishing returns. Being one dimensional makes you easy to manage against. If you knew your opponent would field six gloves + hits, you could draft a great team to beat it. Having all the same hit type is also a bit problematic. Even a team of 7 HRs (all with one and a two bagger), you’d probably only score 3-4 runs (after two gloves and maybe a walk/pickoff). A team with HRs wants cards generate RBIs. A team with singles wants extra bases to clear them out at the end. Multi-hit cards stop gloves and threaten points and big hit cards and clutch bring them home.
Which is a long winded way of saying I’m not sure how to value various hits. So let’s add speed to the mix.
Slow runners conflict with stolen bases. And they want a few triples and home runs. Average runners (at least, enough of them) are content with doubles. A team of all slow runners and all average probably only differs by a run, unless you have lots of stolen bases.
General Thoughts and the On Deck Circle
The big drafting choice is offense versus defense. More hits or stop their hits? All the teams start with two gloves, a walk and a pickoff plus 3 more skills (which are usually 2-3 defensive). Expect to see about 2-3 defensive plays by a starting team. Your opponent isn’t playing randomly, expect those gloves to hit a double or better; expect the pickoff/walk to count. A starting team generates ~6 hits for about 8 bases (although this depends on which veterans show up). A perfectly average starting team would be about 2-2.
In the real world, average rarely shows up in individual contests. You draw hitters one game, defense the next. Even with starting teams it varies wildly. But look at your six cards and imagine the game against an average team. Particularly in a regular season game, you can accept a loss if you get a better position in the market and put a good player back on top of your deck (or discard a weak player). It’s more painful in the playoffs, but sometimes you punt a game.
Who to put On Deck is a big decision. Putting a player on deck can be done for a number of reasons:
- The visiting team can play the on deck card without needing a PH to use the defensive action (only) against the home team’s sixth card. As the visiting manager, the whiffing fielder is a great choice since its a glove and no hits anyway. Nothing wasted. As visitor you need a strong reason to not put someone in the on deck circle.
- You have a high variance player – one that is useful in some situations and useless in another. For example, the Intentional Walker is great against the HR hitter (and many free agents), but he doesn’t do anything against a single guy. He is also a PH, so you can keep him out and put in a different situation guy on deck and use one or the other. For example, a decent (not great) batter. If you need the variance guy, you play him, if it looks like you wont, you put in the hits.
- Knowledge — You can always PH for a random player, but having a player on deck means you know a bit more. You get one pinch hit where you know what you are getting. Pinch hitting for a random player is often a desperation move, but desperation moves sometimes work. And by putting someone on deck you’ve reduced the # of players the top card could be.
- Notice that the visiting team’s first card can’t use an ability except for leadoff and their on deck card is often used for the defensive ability only. The home team can use many defensive abilities one their first card, but can never use on deck except via pinch hitting. The visiting teams advantage is being able to use two mediocre cards efficiently (assuming that one is mediocre offensively and the other defensively). The home team’s advantage is tempo, being able to decide what to do after having seen one more card. You can’t control where you play much, but being aware of it may help you make a better decision.
- Similarly — As the home team, expect one hit to be cancelled from your final card (or worse). The visiting team can often save a home run for the last card and hope that the home team can’t cancel (or PH), but the home player should probably play his on card five unless he absolutely needs the run scored on his other card.
- When you are a dollar or two short of a good acquisition: put a player on deck to try and bump up your revenue. Then you have to be careful not to pinch hit your revenue back down. Or you can protect some money for next game if you have extra by putting in a $2 player on deck. (Which also helps lower your revenue to go first for a key player or choose to go second in hopes of letting your opponent take a non-key player and giving you a new option, if there are many acceptable drafts).
- If you have a superstar and 5 shlubs, consider putting the star on deck and then back on top of your deck for the next game. Or if you have 2 future minor-league-legends, put one on deck and discard him at the end to cycle your deck a bit faster. In general (particularly when purchasing) cycling is good. Don’t put a solitary shlub on deck, you need to send someone down to the minors! (This is assuming you plan on making a single purchase. If you plan on making two, you’ll want two shlubs).
If you’ve got a few PHs you may can be liberal in ‘conceding’ a game or protecting a player. If you find yourself in a close game and want your on deck player back you chuck a PH and put him in. The loss for doing this is that if you hadn’t put your player on deck, you could use your PH for a random player.
Beyond this, what do I look at? If you have below average hits, you may throw a big hitter into the on deck circle, particularly if he’s zero revenue. This is because of the marginal utility discussion above. If you draw another hitter you can PH to above average hits. If you draw defense you may be able to hold off. If 4-5 hits won’t score a run dropping one hit on average to get a better fielder may let you escape into extra innings with 0-0. Similarly with too little defense, switch out some defense for more offense and bank on a high scoring game. Consider the marginal utility. A 3rd curveballer or 2nd spitballer is a reasonable on deck play …. there is diminishing marginal utility and what if your opponent drew few/no cards you can cancel? With a bad draw, try to be unbalanced and hope for the best. Sometimes you get lucky because your opponent is also subject to variance, and you are hoping that by reducing your mediocre offense they’ll waste their extra defense. You’ve already conceded the point. (You can also try to small ball and get a run or two without any hits, leadoff/stolen base/clutch).
When do I not put a player on deck? Rarely. The only example I’m positive it was right play was when I had $11 and Max Verlander (an $11 cost player) was a free agent. I could have put a $1 player on deck but I didn’t risk drawing a $0 non-PH player.
Tips for Playing the Minigame
- As the home team, expect the visiting manager to play a defensive card in the on deck circle (or curveball). Plan accordingly. The home teams Home Run batter should often go fifth or fourth.
- The visiting team can often risk keeping the last batter as a big hitter, since the home team will only have one card left. Of course it may still be a PH, but it often isn’t.
- Consider playing your best robot early, especially if your opponent knows you have a better one in your deck. Your opponent may sit on their curveballer. (Ditto other aspects).
- Don’t casually release your last PH unless it’s a crushing play or you were never intending to use your on deck player.
- All of the above points are bluff and counterbluffable … I know that he knows that I know. As a home team, you may keep your last player as a double play, and hope to just give up the hit but clear the runners out. If you have two players without hits, you may try playing all four of your hitters hoping to pressure your opponent into saving a card for the end.
- Sometimes you have to just try the top card and hope. Particularly in the last few cards. But see below.
- You only have to win by one run, but runs come fast.
- Don’t be afraid to slap down a 2-3 hit card early even if you don’t get to use the skill. (Obviously, the less useful the skill is, the more the advice applies). Early runners have plenty of opportunities to convert. Singles in the fifth inning, however, only get one more card.
- You know at least 1 card in your opponents hand — the free agent he just bought. Do you remember what it does? (Bonus question — Is it a PH?) Similarly, holding your free agent to your last card (especially as visitor) can let your opponent make guaranteed plays, particularly when he remembers that your free agent does not have PH. This is not theoretical. In my first tournament, I knew one card order guaranteed a victory and the other a draw, because I knew what my opponent’s final card was.
You go through your deck in (roughly) two games. I’m assuming that you always put a card in your on deck circle. When you are buying free agents it slows down a bit because each one you buy goes (effectively) from discard to on top.
If you aren’t buying free agents that means that if you didn’t see someone in game one, you are seeing them in game two. If your opponent fields mostly rookies + veterans in the first game, you’ll hitting all free agents in game two. And if you are down to one card on your deck you should be able to remember if you haven’t seen your stud yet or if you (I personally would not allow note taking in a tournament, to prevent tracking and to keep the game moving).
In general you want to discard your on deck card at the end of the game if it’s a base card (even a veteran) and keep it if it’s a free agent. If a game is decided you may PH to cycle bad cards off your deck (more base cards than upgrades) or to trigger a reshuffle if most of your shlubs are in this game, to keep them out of their deck for next game.
For the love of Pete (Rose) know the last card in your deck is. This can make your PH (or on deck decision) obvious. I lost a tournament on this point.
If you have less money, the decision to go first or second is yours. If your opponent has an obvious play you can’t block, you should probably let them go first, particularly if you have a nice middle range of money (say, 6-8, particularly on boards with a bunch of 5-7 cost guys and the one $9 guy your opponent will get). Maybe they’ll flip up another player. If you are tight on money, and there’s only one player (or combination) you really want, then go first, or risk getting blocked.
Going second may also let you react, remember that all players acquired will be put on top of the deck.
If you have $9 or more, you may be able to buy two players. This is a good idea. You’ll upgrade two rookies (or rookie + veteran). Sure the single $9 guy will be awesome, but you’ll still have a rookie and you’ll get two new players next game.
I happen to like (perhaps too much) natural hitters with gloves since the balance offense and defense. You can put your weakest hitting glove on deck (as visitor). You’ll still want a few other skills (diminishing marginal utility) but natural players also tend to have decent revenue and speed.
Avoid anti-combos, like slow players and stolen bases, or multple leadoff hitters. (Avoid leadoff hitters in general).
When chucking players consider marginal utility and not just your own. Dropping a cyborg (or two) can be surprisingly effective if your opponent has spitballers/quickeyes or even if they are on the board. If your opponent drafts them no harm, and you can draft them later. Even dropping a single cyborg means you’ll average one a game, and sometimes none, making all those skills useless. Swapping out naturals and robots can also be done. There are only so many curveballers/fastballers.
There are so many combinations I’m loathe to go into more specific advice
The Starting Teams in Detail
New Yorks’s Veterans:
- The “Double Play” — Na, $1, Single, Double Play
- The “Fastballer” — Cy, $1, Single, Fastball
- The “QuickEye” — Ro, $2, Double, Quick Eye, Slow, PH
- “YardBot” –Ro, $0, HR, PH
- “Triplebot” — Ro, $2, Triple
NY’s veterans have five hits for eleven bases, an offensive powerhouse. I initially thought this team was dominant, but …
- They are below average on speed (no fast player to compensate the slow players),
- They have an extra robot (more vulnerable to curveballers, already the best of the three pitching skills).
- Yardbot has one of the PHs and $0. That’s an anti-combo. If you are routing the other team you may pinch hit for him to up revenue, but usually he’s going to hit and that means $0.
- Mediocre skills. Fastball early on is worse than a glove (as you are probably cancelling a single, maybe a double). QuickEye should usually trigger, but slow means you’ll need another double to bring it home. DoublePlay can’t pick off fast players but is usually at least as good as a pickoff.
- “Mr. October” — Na, $0, Single, Clutch, PH.
- “Charly Hough” — Cy, $2, Knuckleballer, PH
- “Mr. Two Way” — Na, $1, Triple, Slow, Glove
- “YaahdBot” — Ro, $1, HR
- “Speedbot” — Ro, $2, D, Fast
Four hits for ten bases, but great skills make this my favorite team.
- Glove is great, and on a triple hitter slow isn’t much of a burden. You can’t steal home, and can get caught in a double play, but there’s only one guy on base. I like Glove + Hit guys, as noted above.
- Clutch is usually an extra hit. Having a PH on a $0 clutch guy means if he isn’t useful you can top deck.
- Speedbot can score after his hit on a single.
- Knuckleballer is weak early on, but great against RegularBot (S+S) in the opening series. And he’s PH, so if he’s not useful you can top deck.
Los Angeles’s Veterans
- “Meh” — Na, $1, None, Leadoff, PH
- “Curveball” — Cy, $2, none, curveball, PH
- “Hitbot” — Ro, $1, Single + Double
- “Boomboy” — Na, $1, HR
- “Theftbot” — Ro, $1, Single x2, Stolen Base
4 Hits for 7 bases, but a stolen base and leadoff is another single (bringing it up to 5H, 8 bases) that can PH. (All average speed). LA plays the small ball. In general I don’t like LA, although if you get your leadoff player as a visitor (you want one player with all offense for your first play) it’s fine.But you don’t control that. One nice thing is that there are no $0 people, which means you only have one in the deck. Variance may be nice, but this lets you PH a bit easier. My instinct is that LA is the weakest team, but in the variance noise.
San Franciso’s Veterans
- “Mr. September” — Na, $0, Single, Clutch
- “The Fastballer” — Cy, $2, none, Fastball, PH
- “Shoeful Joe” — Na, $2, Single, Glove
- “Cove Rover” — Ro, $0, HR, PH
- “Regular!Bot” — Ro, $2, S+S (Like RegularBot, but a crowd-pleaser)
Five hits for 8 bases, but clutch is often another hit. Again all average speed. High variance revenue lets you make drastic revenue adjustments if you focus on that instead of winning games. That’s a plus early on. Fastball gets steadily better, particularly against people like me who draft naturals with a hit + a glove. As mentioned before, I like clutch, but the PH could be on better people.