## Seen in the wild

AKJTxx

—

KQJT98x

—

More amazingly, this hand sat when partner got doubled in 5H. The things you see online. (Although, the player self-listed as intermediate which means that I sympathize instead of mock).

**Update:** Just to make clear, I was serious about sympathy. Partner opened 1 Heart. Our beginner jumpshifted to 2 Diamonds and then bid 2 spades over the (expected) 2 hearts. Now opener (self-listed as expert) bid five hearts.

I understood what he meant by that (“I have good hearts but two club losers”), but I didn’t a year ago.

Advertisements

Wow. That’s 6D by itself. And I’d self list as Beginner.

LouMay 10, 2009 at 11:55 pm

I was thinking this morning about my comment that the hand makes 6d by itself. Sure, it would go down if the Qs wins, but that seems unlikely. Can someone estimate the % chance that declarer would not be able to make 6d? It seems like the following would have to occur:

1) Qs not in partner’s hand

2) Qs protected

3) Dummy cannot ruff on the Qs

The other question is how do you decide whether to risk the finesse or just play the AK?

Lets say that dummy has 2 low spades, so opponents have 5 spades, they didn’t bid so no information, and the dummy ruff can’t happen. Dummy takes the opening club lead with an Ace, do you try the finesse? How does the play change if dummy has 3 low spades instead?

My assumption is that since with 5 spades out, the finesse is a 50% chance, and a single/doubleton queen is only a ~40% chance, try the finesse. With 4 spades just have dummy lead trump to draw the Ad, and then play the AKs and hope for a 2-2 split. Am I missing something?

LouMay 11, 2009 at 2:52 pm

I was thinking this morning about my comment that the hand makes 6d by itself. Sure, it would go down if the Qs wins, but that seems unlikely. Can someone estimate the % chance that declarer would not be able to make 6d? It seems like the following would have to occur:

1) Qs not in partner’s hand

2) Qs protected

3) Dummy cannot ruff on the Qs

The other question is how do you decide whether to risk the finesse or just play the AK?

Lets say that dummy has 2 low spades, so opponents have 5 spades, they didn’t bid so no information, and the dummy ruff can’t happen. Dummy takes the opening club lead with an Ace, do you try the finesse? How does the play change if dummy has 3 low spades instead?

My assumption is that since with 5 spades out, the finesse is a 50% chance, and a single/doubleton queen is only a ~40% chance, try the finesse. With 4 spades just have dummy lead trump to draw the Ad, and then play the AKs and hope for a 2-2 split. Am I missing something?

LouMay 11, 2009 at 2:52 pm

Gotta say, I’m definitely a beginner, and no way with that hand I let it be in anything but Diamonds or possibly Spades. I mean, even if partner has strong Hearts, the odds of partner having as skewed a division as you (and as Lou says, you have a very good shot at 6D on your own without anything at all from partner), and partner’s open implies at least some strength somewhere – which includes a possible AD or QS (QS more likely, although neither is also likely). So why on earth pass on a (doubled!) contract for which you have 0 trump support?

Still, awkward if you feel your partner is more experienced than you and so should know what they’re doing.

PhilipMay 11, 2009 at 7:42 pm

There are other factors of course. If dummy has two spades, then the finesse needs both the queen onside (50%) and a 3-2 break (68%). The S9 in dummy doesn’t even help; a 4-1 break runs into a ruff most of the time. So the finesse is only 34%. On the other hand, the drop is only 40% if the suit is 3-2. .4 * .68 = .27. If the suit is 4-1 (28%), then the drop is only 20%. .2 * .28 = .06. So the drop is roughly 33%. Yeah, it’s still inferior, but it’s pretty close. Note that you won’t take a second finesse even if the first one succeeds and dummy has the S9 so you can. They could win the DA and get a ruff when everything is great.

The first question is harder to answer given that there is bidding. Partner showed lots of hearts which reduces the chance he has any given non-heart. But he showed a good hand, which increases the chance that he has any given queen. On the other hand, he bid 5H without knowing you have the SA, so he almost has to have a spade void, the DA and probably one or two more, two little clubs, and a boatload of hearts. Assuming he’s not nuts (bad assumption), he should have something like — AKQ10xxxxx Ax xx. On the gripping hand, he didn’t bid 3H over 2D, so his suit shouldn’t be good enough to bid 5H later. So we don’t really have any idea what he holds, just what he thinks he holds. Trying to guess that is the way to madness.

JeffGMay 11, 2009 at 7:47 pm

There are other factors of course. If dummy has two spades, then the finesse needs both the queen onside (50%) and a 3-2 break (68%). The S9 in dummy doesn’t even help; a 4-1 break runs into a ruff most of the time. So the finesse is only 34%. On the other hand, the drop is only 40% if the suit is 3-2. .4 * .68 = .27. If the suit is 4-1 (28%), then the drop is only 20%. .2 * .28 = .06. So the drop is roughly 33%. Yeah, it’s still inferior, but it’s pretty close. Note that you won’t take a second finesse even if the first one succeeds and dummy has the S9 so you can. They could win the DA and get a ruff when everything is great.

The first question is harder to answer given that there is bidding. Partner showed lots of hearts which reduces the chance he has any given non-heart. But he showed a good hand, which increases the chance that he has any given queen. On the other hand, he bid 5H without knowing you have the SA, so he almost has to have a spade void, the DA and probably one or two more, two little clubs, and a boatload of hearts. Assuming he’s not nuts (bad assumption), he should have something like — AKQ10xxxxx Ax xx. On the gripping hand, he didn’t bid 3H over 2D, so his suit shouldn’t be good enough to bid 5H later. So we don’t really have any idea what he holds, just what he thinks he holds. Trying to guess that is the way to madness.

JeffGMay 11, 2009 at 7:47 pm

There are other factors of course. If dummy has two spades, then the finesse needs both the queen onside (50%) and a 3-2 break (68%). The S9 in dummy doesn’t even help; a 4-1 break runs into a ruff most of the time. So the finesse is only 34%. On the other hand, the drop is only 40% if the suit is 3-2. .4 * .68 = .27. If the suit is 4-1 (28%), then the drop is only 20%. .2 * .28 = .06. So the drop is roughly 33%. Yeah, it’s still inferior, but it’s pretty close. Note that you won’t take a second finesse even if the first one succeeds and dummy has the S9 so you can. They could win the DA and get a ruff when everything is great.

The first question is harder to answer given that there is bidding. Partner showed lots of hearts which reduces the chance he has any given non-heart. But he showed a good hand, which increases the chance that he has any given queen. On the other hand, he bid 5H without knowing you have the SA, so he almost has to have a spade void, the DA and probably one or two more, two little clubs, and a boatload of hearts. Assuming he’s not nuts (bad assumption), he should have something like — AKQ10xxxxx Ax xx. On the gripping hand, he didn’t bid 3H over 2D, so his suit shouldn’t be good enough to bid 5H later. So we don’t really have any idea what he holds, just what he thinks he holds. Trying to guess that is the way to madness.

JeffGMay 11, 2009 at 7:47 pm